Indonesian whispers: RI to become China containment?

By Colin Singer and Lauren Gumbs

In Bandung Colin Singer discovered whispers and concerns about stagnating rapprochement between Indonesia and Australia. 

Elections always bring out a consipiratorial mood, but political observers say that Indonesian elites do not relinquish power easily; they just find new sumber daya to maintain their grip.

Soon to be former-President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), Colin said, is no different in this regard, already positioning himself for an influential retirement by consolidating strategic relationships with the US, UK, Singapore and Australia who seek to use Indonesia to contain China's regional encroachments.

 Colin Singer, Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee at the Indonesia Institute, was in Bandung to talk to locals about the election and he said there were plenty of conspiracy theories floating around about SBY's family and cronies trying to disrupt PDI-P’s success.


Frontrunner for the presidency, Joko Widodo, belongs to Megawati Sukarno Putri's PDI-P party, who are viewed as more friendly towards China, whereas SBY is considerably less sympathetic, tacitly acknowledging China as a potentially destabilising regional force.

"When I was talking to political observers I heard a lot of people saying that they do not trust Western motives and that Western powers are keen to use Indonesia as a buffer between South Asia and Chinese influence," Mr Singer said.

"Some sources assert SBY is turning Indonesia in a 'land carrier' for the West to take on China.

SBY has worked hard to gain regional respect and to take the lead in the ASEAN, and as Indonesia is the biggest economy in the ASEAN region, it will be expected to mediate diplomatic standoffs between China and other ASEAN nations.

"People believe that in the lead up to the final days of SBY's last term, his imperative is to protect himself and his family's legacy by reinforcing Western oriented relationships that strengthen resistance to potential Chinese incursions."  

"People believe that SBY is looking to secure Indonesia's domestic scope of legitimacy over resources and territorial sovereignty by trading off its its traditional insistence on multilateral diplomacy for increased regional militarization.

"To that extent SBY needs the support of the Western alliance to secure a UN post replete with  protective diplomatic privileges."

The Asia pivot has seen strategic positioning of military bases and huge expansions of the USA, UK and Australian embassies, out of scale in comparison to their economic and immigration needs. 

The Australian Embassy in Indonesia will be its biggest in the world.

The USA and Australian funded Densus 88 is seen by some as not only a counter terrorism force but as an entry facility for Western special forces. 

Indeed military cooperation has been a core component of good relations between Indonesia and Australia, and superficially one of the first areas rolled back in the wake of the Snowden spying revelations.

In addition, the new Australia–Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction is touted by some as a sort of Trojan horse, providing cover for Australian military personnel to transition into a bigger presence.

 It remains to be seen how the next leader of the world's tenth top economy will deal with regional instabilities and with the possibility that Indonesia may have a more belligerent president who would not be as tolerant in the wake of spying and boat turn backs as SBY has been, Abbott is keen to make amends.

While Jokowi is green and it is unknown where his regional political focus might lie as separate to Megawati, Prabowo, a former military man accused of human rights abuses, has asserted nationalist politics more stridently and would certainly oppose sovereign slights whether from China or Australia.

If the rumours about Indonesia being positioned as a buffer are true, the upcoming elections could dash those hopes altogether.

Lauren is Director of Social Media and Marketing at the Indonesia Institute and Colin is Social and Political Director.

Indo-Oz relations set to drift back to ‘normal’

By Ross B. Taylor

Prime Minister Tony Abbott threw away his ‘get-out-of-jail-free’ card when he decided not to accept an invitation earlier this month to meet Indonesian President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY ) in Bali. This was a lost opportunity for our PM as the Indonesian president sought a face-saving way of mending the strained relations between his country and Australia before he leaves office in the next few months.

Now Mr Abbott is making a stopover in Batam to meet SBY in an effort to repair the bi-lateral  relationship following a stoush in late 2013 over Australia’s handling of spying allegations and the tough turn-back-the-boats policy implemented by his government. This won’t be easy as post-budget demands here in Australia, and the presidential election manoeuvring in Jakarta, have kept the leaders busy.

So will the prime minister be able to get relations back to normal before SBY stands down? Well, it depends on the timing and also what we call ‘normal’.

Whilst there is still significant resentment in Indonesia over Australia's stance on these two 'irritating' conflicts, the asylum seeker issue, as a matter of public interest, does not rate highly in Indonesia. And with boat people no longer having any real access to Australia via people smugglers, there is anecdotal evidence to suggest there has been a significant drop in people entering Indonesia illegally as the transit country, potentially providing a ‘win-win’ for both countries against people smugglers.

The other major issue - the alleged spying that was at the heart of the diplomatic spat - was carried out against a president who, in the next few months, will retire from office with very little credibility or respect amongst most Indonesians.

The incoming Indonesian president looks like being the popular Joko Widodo (known as 'Jokowi'). Whilst he lacks any real international experience, should he be elected, ‘Jokowi’ would possibly want to put any previous regional spats behind him, and be open to rebuilding the bi-lateral relationship with Australia; given that both countries need each other in areas of regional security, intelligence, terrorism, and food supply.

‘Jokowi’ would however, be a president whose focus would be on domestic issues during his first term, so relations with Australia may get far less attention than previously; and herein lies a potential difficulty if Australia tries to rebuild the relationship too late, and discovers that ‘Jokowi’ - with his party (PDI-P) leader, Megawati Sukarnoputri (who has no real love of Australia) in the background - appears ambivalent towards his large southern neighbour.

The ‘wild card’ in this scenario is the possibility of the aging but astute Jusuf Kalla being elected as Indonesia’s Vice-President (for the second time) following his formal nomination this week by the PDI-P as Jokowi’s presidential ‘running mate’. This could help Mr Abbott, as Mr Kalla is business-orientated, is comfortable with Australia, and has a strong international relations background. He would complement ‘Jokowi’ well and together provide Indonesia with stable leadership.

In the meantime, SBY would probably prefer to mend the relationship with Mr Abbott’s government now, to enhance his own legacy as a president who built close links with Australia and Australians. His direction to the Indonesian ambassador to Australia, H.E. Nadjib Riphat Kesoema, to return to Canberra later this month - despite Mr Abbott’s decision not to attend the Bali meeting - are all signs that SBY does in fact want the relationship ‘normalised’ soon.

With SBY’s legacy ambitions, and Indonesia’s focus on the upcoming presidential election, despite our ‘hard-line’ and sometimes arrogant approach to our northern neighbour, Mr Abbott may still mend the relationship without any compromise on his tough border protection policies.

As to whether the longer-term relationship under Mr Abbott can move beyond ‘normal’ and progress sufficiently to take advantage of the huge opportunities that await a country like Australia, as Indonesia emerges as a major world economic power on our doorstep, is an entirely different manner.

If we are to avoid being sidelined by regional competitors - including China, Japan and Singapore - and truly seize the opportunities with Indonesia, we are going to have to re-define the relationship that, for the past ten years, has been dominated by asylum seekers issues and Bali holidays gone wrong.

Ross B. Taylor AM is the President of the Indonesia Institute (Inc) based in WA