Bali Nine Duo fate lost in a malaise of domestic discontent

By Ross B. Taylor

The fate of Myuran Sukamaran and Andrew Chan is now completely engulfed in a quagmire of domestic politics affecting Indonesia’s new and beleaguered president Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo.

Only six months into his term as the ‘people’s president’ Jokowi is showing all the signs of being both naive and confused as a major corruption case completely swamps his government and nation.

Consider the following scenario in an Australian:context:

Our PM, Tony Abbott, has to appoint a new Australian Federal Police (AFP) chief but is presented with only one candidate; a close friend of the President of the National Liberal Party  and a person who is under investigation for serious corruption offences. The nomination is also supported by the AFP themselves who come out strongly in favour of the candidate; one that most commentators and the public consider a crook.

To make matters even worse, the candidate’s mates in the federal parliament – many who also have dubious backgrounds – vote that this person be confirmed by Mr Abbott as Australia’s top cop; all this taking place the day after the Australian Crime Commission (ACC) confirms that indeed, the nominee is a major corruption suspect.

Under huge pressure from within his ranks and the AFP, Mr Abbott endorses the nomination. The country is outraged, and demands from lawyers, journalists and leading academics are unanimous: This is a crazy and obscene choice as the new head of the AFP.

Mr Abbott dithers and pontificates whist facing an impossible choice, that if he  proceeds with the appointment of this corruption suspect as the new AFP chief, he will be seen as a puppet leader, who is extremely weak and unable to stand-up to the ‘old guard’ wanting to protect their self-interests. Yet if he decides not to proceed with this appointment, he will lose support of the political elite and his own party leadership.

Mr Abbott finally acts as a result of public pressure and withdraws the nomination of the preferred candidate leaving very influential people – including the police themselves – very upset. It’s payback time. The AFP raids the offices of the ACC and arrests the three most senior commissioners along with a handful of ACC investigators on what appears to be trumped-up charges.

This scenario may seem fanciful, but welcome to Indonesia 2015 under President Joko Widodo.

It is amidst these very disturbing developments that the Bali Nine duo consider their fate; all in the hands of a president who is trapped by internal politics and is facing a potential collapse in public support as the Indonesian Anti-Corruption Commission ( KPK) faces a major survival challenge. Make no mistake, this organisation, despite enormous respect amongst Indonesia’s civil society, has many enemies in high places. Enemies who would like to see the KPK disappear forever along with all its respected commissioners and planned corruption cases.

Buoyed by their ‘success’ in crippling the KPK, the National Police seem to be now turning their attention to academics and other civil society advocates, including Professor Denny Indiayana, a prominent anti-corruption campaigner who has been charged with corruption. The police as yet are not able to explain what corruption was to have occurred by Professor Indiayana.

Expats and civil society advocates within Indonesia also have watched aghast as the highly respected Jakarta International School has been shattered following the recent jailing a senior teacher for very dubious child molestation charges. Then came the announcement last week by the Minister for National Land Agencies, Ferry Baldan, that the state may seek to reclaim any property within Indonesia - including Bali - owned directly or indirectly through legal nominees, by foreigners. This announcement has sent shock-waves through much of the foreign community and resulted in a dramatic fall in property development enquiries.
 

These are all worrying developments for this young democracy. 

Meanwhile, the handling of the planned execution of Sukumaran and Chan by Indonesian officials has become a debacle and is quite rightly being now seen internationally as cruel and insensitive as yet another appeal comes and goes.

As this terrible execution story unfolds alongside the ongoing and highly damaging corruption commission shambles, the question needs to be asked: How bad can things get in Indonesia, and between our two countries? 

Sadly, there is the very real potential for things to get a lot worse as even the president himself faces a threat to his political survival, whilst the ‘spill-over’ affect will leave Australian diplomats very worried indeed.

The implications of what is now playing out are significant. Only last month the highly respect defence expert, Professor Alan Dupont, writing for The Australian, urged Australia and Indonesia to ‘foster closer strategic partnerships in defence’. As we witness the rise-and-rise of China in the region and the US response to that expansion, Professor Dupont is right to highlight the critical joint role for Indonesia and Australia in keeping our region secure, but how do we achieve that objective when our two leaders don’t even talk to each other?

People smuggling, terrorism, business and trade opportunities are further reasons that demand close relations between Indonesia and Australia.

Therefore, here in Australia, a far more measured response to the proposed executions of Chan and Sukamaran is critical to avoid ‘feeding’ the now very strong nationalistic furor engulfing our northern neighbour amidst chaotic events over the chief-of-police job and the anti-corruption commission scandal. No wonder our political leaders lament the retirement of the former president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono last year.

Indonesia has achieved so much since it became a full democracy 17 years ago. But what we are now witnessing is, at best, a nasty bump on the road to this amazing country becoming a economic powerhouse and an outstanding example of a progressive and civil society. President Widodo can still turn his political fortunes around; but it won’t be easy, as no one is really sure where the turmoil engulfing his new administration will lead. But what we do know is that Australia must now tread with great care. 

Much is now at stake; and much more than just our precious Bali holidays.

Ross Taylor is the President of the Indonesia Institute.