The execution of Myuran Sukumaran and
Andrew Chan is now confirmed for as early as tonight, and with this
announcement will come the greatest test for Indonesia-Australia relations
since the East Timor crisis in 1999.
The execution of the Bali Nine duo will
come at a time when a relatively new government in Indonesia
is facing an enormous backlash from around-the-world, including Australia,
over its decision to proceed with the execution those who traffic drugs.
Following the executions, there is the
likelihood that Australia
will recall our recently appointed ambassador to Indonesia,
Paul Grigson, and there will be calls for Australia
to impose trade and tourism sanctions, withdraw aid-funding and
government-to-government co-operation.
The announcement of the intent to kill these two men has resulted in the
cancelation of the visit to Perth today by Indonesia’s
former, and respected president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) to address the In-the-Zone
conference at UWA this week. The announcement
was also made on Anzac Day; Australia's most sacred day.
Australia’s
reaction to the deaths of these two men will need to be considered very
carefully however, in the current volatile environment. Our PM can no longer
simply pick-up the phone and talk to ‘Australia’s friend’ SBY as president, and
whilst our foreign minister Julie Bishop can still text her former
counter-part, Dr Marty Natalegawa, the new foreign minister, Retno Marsudi is
reluctant to take any calls.
Mr Abbott and Ms Bishop will also be aware
that currently, Indonesian democracy and stability under president Joko
‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s seven month-old administration is in a very fragile condition
as they show all the signs of inexperience, naivety and considerable
dysfunction. Add to this a wave of nationalism engulfing our northern neighbour
and we have a ‘perfect storm’ for the bi-lateral relationship.
In attacking Indonesia
for what is being seen by many Australians as a barbaric act, we need to
remember that as a young nation we embraced capital punishment for 84 years,
until we finally removed the death sentence from the statute in 1985. It took
generations and years of community debate to demonstrate to the Australian
people that a ‘civil society’ should not legally kill anyone. Indonesia
is only 67 years old as an independent nation, and democracy – where the people
and civil society campaigners can speak openly about the need for social change
– is only in its 17th year.
In Australia,
we now embrace the notion that smoking, for example, is terrible and we have
laws and community support to ensure our population avoids this lethal drug. In
Indonesia
young people are subjected to vast tobacco advertising and availability, and
community attitudes are still divided as to whether smoking is dangerous; even
though over 400,000 Indonesians die each year from lung cancer.
Indonesia
is learning that to significantly reduce the number of people who smoke, needs
community support and understanding, and from the Australian experience, it
will take several generations to get the total community awareness to allow for
that change. Capital punishment is no different.
For the past ten years there has been an
ongoing debate amongst civil society advocates within Indonesia
about the need to stop the legalised killing of people for serious crimes. But
it needs an extensive community and national discussion and awareness campaign.
It will happen, but they need more than 17 years.
Meanwhile, the entire handling of the
planned execution of Sukumaran and Chan by Indonesian officials has been a
debacle and is quite rightly being seen internationally as cruel and
insensitive. Australia has every
right to express its disappointment and objection given that Indonesia
will proceed with these executions as early as this
week.
As this terrible story unfolds, the
question needs to be asked: How bad can things get between our two countries?
Sadly, there is the very real potential for things to get a lot worse as even
the Indonesian president himself faces a threat to his political survival,
whilst the ‘spill-over’ affect of domestic instability within Indonesia will
leave Australian diplomats very worried indeed.
The implications of what is now playing
out are significant. Only last month the highly respect defence expert,
Professor Alan Dupont, urged Australia
and Indonesia
to ‘foster closer strategic partnerships in defence’. As we witness the rise-and-rise
of China in the region and
the US response to that
expansion, Professor Dupont is right to highlight the critical joint role for Indonesia
and Australia
in keeping our region secure, but how do we achieve that objective when our two
leaders don’t even talk to each other?
People smuggling, anti-terrorism, business
and trade opportunities are further reasons that demand close relations between
Indonesia and Australia.
Therefore, here in Australia, a far more
measured response to the execution of Chan and Sukumaran is critical to avoid
‘feeding’ the now very strong nationalistic furore engulfing our northern
neighbour amidst chaotic events domestically over a wide range of issues
including the appointment of the national chief-of-police and the attack on the
Anti-Corruption Commission.
President Widodo can still turn his
political fortunes around; but it won’t be easy, as no one is really sure where
the turmoil engulfing his new administration will lead, but what we do know is that
as the executions of these two Australians take place, we must tread with great
care.
So as these two men
die, so will a part of Indonesia's humanity, but for now much is at stake; and
much more than just our precious Bali holidays.
