Bali nine executions will taint Australia-Indonesia relations, say experts

By David Wroe

Diplomatic spats between Jakarta and Canberra have become familiar episodes, often provoking by-the-numbers responses.

But some experts and former officials say Jakarta's intractability over Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran is different and demands a significant response from Australia. They also point to a reactive nationalism that is always a feature of Indonesian political life but which is being stoked under the presidency of Joko Widodo.

Usually there is a political and public response during disagreements between Australia and Indonesia but, beneath the surface, business goes on. But as one former senior foreign affairs official puts it: "This is different because it's not just a government matter – it's reached into the communities on both sides."

The official is one of several who said Australia should recall its ambassador and cancel or postpone government visits and meetings for a period to make its dismay firmly felt.

Dave McRae of Melbourne University's Asia Institute said the criticism of Jakarta was unusually deep and broad even among Indonesia scholars and people who have close involvement with the country.

"That's where this dispute is quite different – we've seen months of strong criticism of Indonesia including from the people with the deepest expertise … who in previous rows have tried to balance the more kneejerk responses with an informed perspective," he said by phone from Indonesia.
"The lasting impact is that it has real potential to make a whole range of co-operation controversial for a long time to come," he said.

He said Australia needed to make it clear to Indonesia that there was "a real cost to executions".
"That means expressing condemnation, suspending some co-operation for a period, and making future law enforcement co-operation conditional on the death penalty not being applied," he said.
It is widely agreed that President Widodo, whose premiership has got off to a poor start, is drawing much-needed public support by digging in his heels on capital punishment – which is largely backed by Indonesians.

This does not bode well in the longer term, some experts say. A former ambassador to Indonesia, John McCarthy, said Indonesia had made "a major mistake" because any executions would severely damage Indonesia's reputation internationally.

"There was a lot of good will towards Jokowi," he said, using President Widodo's nickname. "All that's going to go and he'll be remembered as the execution president … in a lot of countries.
"Down the line ... what I'm starting to get a bit nervous about is whether we are seeing a revival of the nationalist aspect of Indonesia that has always been under the surface."

Australian National University's Indonesia expert Greg Fealy agreed that Jokowi is stoking nationalism and deserves severe criticism for it. But like Mr McCarthy, he says Australia's diplomatic response should be restrained and should focus on the broader moral opposition to capital punishment – Thursday morning's candlelight vigil by politicians being a good example.

"There are quite a few opinion leaders in Indonesia … who are becoming increasingly concerned … about the reputational damage to Indonesia," he said.

On the whole, experts say the relationship will pull through - as it has in the past. But if the executions of Mr Chan and Mr Sukumaran go ahead, the sorrow and anger will taint the relationship more deeply than other recent disputes.

This article originally appeared 6 March in the Sydney Morning Herald.